[The supply and demand situation is still grim! PTA rebound space is suppressed ...]
Release date:[2020/5/25] Read a total of [35] time

Recently, driven by the resumption of work in Europe and the United States, the terminal market has shown certain advantages. However, under the background that overseas epidemics have not been effectively controlled, we still have doubts about the continued improvement in downstream demand. At the same time, PTA's social inventory continues to rise, the market supply and demand is still grim, PTA rebound space or be suppressed.


Cost is low


In the past month, international oil prices have risen steadily, surpassing US $ 30 / barrel, driven by Saudi Arabia ’s over-expected production cuts and the resumption of work in Europe and the United States. However, PTA's direct raw material PX performance was not satisfactory. In the context of the rapid increase of domestic PX production by 58% last year, the loose pattern of PX supply this year is particularly obvious. For the PX in a weak position, the decline in oil prices in the earlier period accelerated the decline of the PX market, while the increase in oil prices had limited effect on the PX price. Since late April, the cumulative increase in PX has only been 15%.


With the recovery of the naphtha cracking spread, the production profit of the PX link has narrowed. The PX-naphtha spread recently dropped to around US $ 230 / ton, which was US $ 40 / ton down from the same period in April. Despite the overhaul of some devices in Asia in May, PX supply is still abundant. The current PTA raw material cost is at a low level around 2600 yuan / ton, which has certain support for PTA prices.


Huge inventory pressure


Although the absolute price of PTA is at a low level, the drop in oil prices in the previous period has benefited the PTA production link. The PTA processing fee has continued to rise from March to April, and the recent increase in PX is far weaker than the upstream market, so that PTA production profits remain at 700-800 yuan / ton Good level.


However, high processing fees are often accompanied by high operating rates. The average operating rate of PTA plants since April has been as high as 92%, making PTA's high inventory pressure even more obvious. As of now, PTA stocks have risen to a high of around 3.55 million tons. According to the calculation of the existing production capacity, the PTA operating rate should be nearly 10% lower than that of the polyester, so that the market can be basically balanced. Compared with the current 91% operating load of the PTA industry, the polyester operating rate is obviously insufficient. It is understood that the main maintenance plans for the PTA market in June are Hainan Yisheng, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yizheng Chemical Fiber. However, under the state of high processing fees, the possibility of postponing maintenance is not ruled out. In addition, the Hengli 5 # device is expected to be put into operation in late June, and the short-term PTA accumulation situation is difficult to change.


Needs to be restored


With the decline in the number of confirmed cases in many overseas countries, countries began to loosen control, driving the recovery rate of terminal weaving companies. However, the current grey cloth inventory is still at a high level of more than 40 days, and the trading volume of China Textile City has not improved significantly. At the same time, facing the low season of the summer textile tradition in the later period, with the overseas epidemic situation not being effectively controlled, the demand for foreign orders still remains variable. Judging from the domestic situation, it is optimistic that the resumption process will continue for 1-2 months.


At present, the polyester varieties are still differentiated. In addition to the short fiber and bottle chip profits, the main product filament market is still poor. After experiencing two short production and sales peaks since May, the polyester market has once again entered the accumulation situation. . Due to the uncertainty of terminal demand, the downstream manufacturers' willingness to purchase is not high, which affects the enthusiasm of polyester to start the promotion and is not conducive to the digestion of PTA inventory.


In short, after the expected consumption improvement of the terminal demand, we should expect more substantial orders to pull, and the short-term PTA high inventory situation will continue.


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